Top of the Table Run In Probability Game

By: Greg | April 23rd, 2008

I’m something of an amateur prognosticator / absolute genius, therefore I’m going to take a look into the future with the final three weeks of the Portuguese Liga season. I’ve been saying for the past two or three weeks (no, really, this blog has been here for even longer than that) that the top of the table in the Tuga Liga (taking out three time champion Porto) is actually shaping up for quite the exciting run in.

These exciting, close finish things never pan out, of course, but we can all dream for the time being…

If this is your first time to my lovely little cubby hole on this, the THIRTY FIFTH MOST POWERFUL BLOG OF THEM ALL, let me remind you what the top of the league looks like, with three matches to go until the end of days:

2nd — V.Guimarães – 49 **UEFA Champions League**
3rd — Sporting – 46 **UEFA Champions League, Qualifying**
4th — Benfica – 45 **UEFA Cup**
5th — Belenenses – 42 **UEFA Cup**
6th — V.Setúbal – 41 **Intertoto Cup**
7th — Marítimo – 40

I have devised a superb, all encompassing mathematical formula to determine how I think each team will end up. Actually, I just look at each of the three individual matches and decide if I think the team is going to win or lose…

2nd Place V.Guimarães
v. Porto - L
@ Belenenses - D
v. E.d.Amadora - W
Final 3 matches: 1-1-1 (4 points) Final Points: 53

3rd Place Sporting
v. Maritimo - D
@ P.Ferreira - W
v. Boavista - W
Final 3 matches: 2-0-1 (7 points) Final Points: 53

4th Place Benfica
v. Belenenses - D
@ E.d.Amadora - W
v. V.Setúbal - W
Final 3 matches: 2-0-1 (7 points) Final Points: 52

5th Place Belenenses
@ Benfica - D
v. V.Guimarães - D
@ Nacional - W
Final 3 matches: 1-0-2 (5 points) Final Points: 47

6th Place V.Setúbal
v. E.d.Amadora - D
v. Leixoes - W
@ Benfica - L
Final 3 matches: 1-1-1 (4 points) Final Points: 45

7th Place Maritimo
@ Sporting - D
v. U.d.Leiria - W
@ Leixoes - W
Final 3 matches: 2-0-1 (7 points) Final Points: 47

Ahh shit. I should have realized I was setting myself up for more work with having to go back and look at tie breakers. The Portuguese League follows the same tie breaker scenario as the Spanish Liga, where they go by head to head record firstly rather than goal differential. I personally prefer this method to the goal differential method. Therefore, considering tie breakers, this is how the league would end if my predictions hold water:

2nd — Sporting –53 (3-2 agg over V.Guimarães) **UEFA Champions League**
3rd — V.Guimarães – 53 **UEFA Champions League, Qualifying**
4th — Benfica – 52 **UEFA Cup**
5th — Marítimo– 47 (5-1 agg over Belenenses) **UEFA Cup**
6th — Belenenses — 47 **UEFA Cup**
7th — V.Setúbal – 45 **Intertoto Cup, from Belenenses accepting UEFA Cup Bid**

To quickly explain how Belenenses gains a UEFA Cup bid in this scenario… Sporting play Porto in the upcoming Taça de Portugal finals. The winner of the Taça gains an automatic bid into the UEFA Cup. However, since both Sporting and Porto have already qualified for the far more prestigious Champions League, the UEFA Cup bid will go to the sixth place team and the Intertoto Cup bid down to the seventh place. In this case, those teams are Belenenses and V.Setúbal, respectively.

Thrilling? You bet. Chances my predictions will come true? None. Got to here and read the whole thing? Thanks, I feel loved. Tomorrow, all things held equal, we’ll work out the bottom feeders with the same exciting predictive formulas. Until then, forget the curve ball reader, give ‘em the heater.