Postulations and Probabilities

By: Greg | May 17th, 2007

After a quick (thank God) conversation with my mother-in-law last night, I realized that there’s a few crazy things that could happen this weekend that would hypothetically result in three different teams winning the league. Let’s take a peek at the different possible configurations and examine the relative probability that any one of the iterations actually comes to fruition:

**Porto win the league IF:**

Porto wins. Probability: 8/10. Porto is playing Aves. Aves is in the bottom three. Like I mentioned in a previous post, you could make the argument that Aves is playing for their League lives and will therefore be otherworldly. Yeahhh… But those animals on Discovery Channel are playing for their lives as well when they’re crossing the croc-infested rivers. However, Porto have kind of been on cruise control since being bounced from the Champions League. That fact, coupled with chance is worth two probability points.

Sporting AND Benfica lose. Probability: 1/10. Rather doubtful, given Sporting’s form and quality (or lack thereof) of Benfica’s competition.

Porto tie AND Sporting lose/tie AND Benfica win/lose/tie. Probability: 5/10. Porto own the tiebreaker over Benfica, so if Porto get any points from their tie with Aves, Benfica is done. Given the point spread (1 point) between Porto and Sporting, a tie on points is impossible if Porto can salvage any from their game. I can see this particular set of events taking place simply because Sporting are playing an up-and-coming team in Belenenses, Benfica’s playing a sub-mediocre team, and Porto are playing a team clawing for their lives.

Porto, Sporting, AND Benfica lose. Probability: 0/10. ALL of the Big Three lose in the same weekend with so much on the line? I’m not even going to entertain this permutation.

**Sporting (yay!) win the league IF:**

Sporting tie AND Porto lose AND Benfica tie/lose. Probability: 4/10. As much as I want to say this has a great possibility of happening, I simply can’t. Sporting will probably at LEAST tie, but banking on Porto to lose to Aves is a sucker bet at best.

Sporting win AND Porto lose/tie. Probability: 5/10. This one has an okay shot, because Porto doesn’t have to lose for it to happen. Benfica don’t figure if either team wins, so they’re not even considered here. Still quit holding your breath, Porto are playing AVES!

**Benfica win the league IF:**

Benfica win AND Sporting lose/tie AND Porto lose. Probability: 3/10. The fact that they can’t have Porto tie here due to Porto holding the tiebreaker really hurts. There’s way too many negative things that have to happen to the other two big teams for this to have a realistic shot of being realized. The low probability here is for the same reason that the Sporting league win has low probability: Porto has to drop points, first and foremost.

Now that all the scenarios are laid out, what are you hoping for? Who do you think will come out on top? Aren’t you glad the league wasn’t decided early like most other leagues? Can you believe it’s not butter?!