Bottom of the Barrel Run In Prediction Game

By: Greg | April 24th, 2008

ctv I’m kind of bummed because I just realized that I have to leave my apartment to watch the Chels pound on ManU this Saturday because I won’t pay $15 for Setanta Sports. However, I WILL go to a bar in order to watch the match and spend TWICE that amount on booze. Which makes a whole hell of a lot of sense. I guess I’m just not comfortable with the thought of my wife waking Saturday morning to seeing me and a few friends blitzed before the eggs hit the frying pan. But I digress…

Yesterday, I broke down how I thought the top of the league would shake out over the last three weeks. At the end of the post (if you managed to make it there without passing out) I promised that I’d examine the bottom of the league as well. Since I’m an equal opportunity clairvoyant, let’s first take a look at how the bottom of the table stands right this moment…

9th - Braga — 34
10th - Nacional — 32
11th - E.d.Amadora — 29
12th - Académica — 28
13th - Naval — 27
14th - P.Ferreira — 24
15th - Leixões — 23 **Relegation**
16th - Leiria — 15 **Relegation**

I realize that Braga is probably pretty safe at this point and that Leiria are almost definitively relegated, but I wanted to include every team that was a mathematically reasonable proposition. While these prediction exercises are often shattered by the first set of results, these may be even more for naught as Boavista may be sent down regardless as punishment for the Golden Whistle proceedings and questions surrounding their already shaky financial situation. So, in descending order, let’s take each team’s final three games and how I think they’ll turn out… (I sincerely hope someone reads this, because it’s somewhat arduous to put this type of thing together, but personally rewarding nonetheless)

9th Place Braga
v. P.Ferreira - W
@ Boavista - D
v. Académica - W
Final 3 matches: 2-0-1 (7 points) Final Points: 41

10th Place Nacional
v. Académica - W
@ Porto - L
v. Belenenses - L
Final 3 matches: 1-2-0 (3 points) Final Points: 35

11th Place E.d.Amadora
@ V.Setúbal - D
v. Benfica - L
@ V.Guimarães - L
Final 3 matches: 0-2-1 (1 point) Final Points: 30

12th Place Académica
@ Nacional - L
v. Naval - W
@ Braga - L
Final 3 matches: 1-2-0 (3 points) Final Points: 31

13th Place Naval
v. Boavista - D
@ Académica - L
V. Porto - L
Final 3 matches: 0-2-1 (1 point) Final Points: 28

14th Place P.Ferreira
@ Braga - L
v Sporting - L
@ Leiria - D
Final 3 matches: 0-2-1 (1 point) Final Points: 25

15th Place Leixões
@ Leiria - W
@ V.Setúbal - L
v. Marítimo - L
Final 3 matches: 1-2-0 (3 points) Final Points: 26

16th Place Leiria
v Leixões - L
@ Marítimo - L
v. P.Ferreira - D
Final 3 matches: 0-2-1 (1 point) Final Points: 16

There’s really not too many surprises here. These teams are going to tend to lose or draw very often given their position in the table, but they also have propensity to be really volatile when it comes to performance (see Leiria 4 -1 Sporting last week). However, I played most of these safe and after examining each of the games, this is how I think it will end up:

9th - Braga — 41
10th - Nacional — 35
11th - Académica — 31
12th - E.d.Amadora — 30
13th - Naval — 28
14th - Leixões — 26
15th - P.Ferreira — 25 **Relegation**
16th - Leiria — 16 **Relegation**

I actually think that Paços de Ferreira are going to be spared the axe due to the fact that I don’t see any solution for Boavista’s current tumultuous situation but to send them down. While one might argue that it’s tantamount to pouring oil on an inferno, I think the once proud team simply needs a second division run to regroup itself and shake off the negative vibes to come back to the top flight with a new mindset and fresh beginning.

As you well know, tomorrow’s the weekend preview and the other fun stuff that goes along with it. On a completely unrelated note, I’ve been watching a bit of the Italian league on FSC and have decided it’s soon time for me to pick a side to support. I had been leaning towards Roma just because they’re so well covered here and chris does a great job of making the team very accessible to an English speaking audience. However, the fact that Jose Mourinho may be moving there soon makes me have to rethink my potential support scenario and hold out to see where the Most Specialest One ends up. But I can be bought, so any Italian club team supporters who want to come forward with ~~cash or~~ alcohol, feel free! I’m all yours! See you tomorrow. Kisses ALL AROUND.